THE SIGNAL
Land is doing that thing again: the headline market looks soft, but the local market keeps throwing clean, high-dollar comps.
Nationally, Q1 2026 land listings hit 426,986 and the median price per acre came in at $62,365—basically flat year over year (-0.5%). (Realtor.com Research)
But if you zoom into real farm-country comps, you still see premium dirt holding the line.
What’s the signal for land investors right now?
Inventory is up compared to the “pandemic land shortage” era, but quality parcels in proven counties still clear at strong prices—especially when they’re build-ready or high-productivity. (Realtor.com Research)
Expert take: “Farmland turnover rates are low, and quality tracts don’t come up often—so when they do, they tend to command strong bids.” — Reagen Tibbs, University of Illinois Extension (Farm Focus). (Illinois Extension)
Internal links to keep you moving:
BY THE NUMBERS
Answer first: The market is splitting into three lanes—build-ready is pricey, raw land is cheaper, and partially developed sits in the middle.
- Build-ready land: 154,100 listings, $126,071/acre median. (Realtor.com Research)
- Raw land: 86,637 listings, $22,682/acre median. (Realtor.com Research)
- Total market: 426,986 listings, $62,365/acre median. (Realtor.com Research)
Meanwhile, Texas keeps chugging.
- Texas statewide rural land hit $5,214/acre, up 6.6% year over year. (Texas Real Estate Research Center)
- Sales were up 8.2% year over year (more deals), even as acres sold were basically flat (-0.3%). (Texas Real Estate Research Center)
And the long view is still up and to the right.
From 2019 Q1 to 2026 Q1, Realtor.com estimates land prices per acre rose 76.6% nationally. (Realtor.com Research)
COUNTY SPOTLIGHT: LOGAN COUNTY, ILLINOIS
Answer first: Logan County is a clean reminder that “boring” counties with strong ag fundamentals can still produce premium comps.
In the 2026 report, Logan County had seven “excellent” land sales averaging 153 acres, and the average sale price was $16,269/acre. (Illinois Extension)
That’s slightly below the prior year’s reported $16,689/acre—but it’s still a very real number, and it’s not coming from hype. (Illinois Extension)
Is Logan County, IL a good place to buy land in 2026?
If your strategy is stable demand + liquidity + comp support, Logan checks the boxes. The “excellent” category is consistently well-bid, and nearby counties are printing similar prices (Sangamon: $17,158/acre; Menard: $14,850/acre). (Illinois Extension)
What are land prices in Logan County, IL right now?
Based on the University of Illinois Extension’s 2026 report, excellent-quality farmland comps averaged $16,269/acre—with tract sizes big enough to take the number seriously. (Illinois Extension)
Quick “investor brain” checklist (beginner-friendly):
- If you need cashflow, you’re thinking rent and operator demand.
- If you need appreciation, you’re thinking comp frequency and county liquidity.
- If you need optionality, you’re thinking zoning, utilities, and exit paths.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Answer first: We’re watching whether the “flat YoY” national story turns into an actual price reset—or just a longer sideways chop.
- Realtor.com has overall land price per acre down 0.5% YoY, and raw land down 2.4% YoY. (Realtor.com Research)
At the same time, USDA pegs 2025 U.S. farm real estate at $4,350/acre, up 4.3% versus 2024. (USDA ERS)
Translation: different datasets, different slices, different stories.
If you’re buying this year, the move is simple: get hyper-local comps, underwrite a boring exit, and don’t overpay for “potential.”
ONE MORE THING
Answer first: Your edge isn’t “finding a county.” It’s turning a messy deal into a clean, trackable decision.
If you’re analyzing parcels each week, use a tool that keeps your numbers straight.
DealCheck is still my go-to for quickly running the math, saving comps, and keeping notes in one place. Here’s the link: https://dealcheck.io?fp_ref=steve72
FAQ
Is land a good investment in 2026?
Yes—if you buy with local comps and a clear exit. National stats show prices are mostly flat YoY, which can be a healthier setup for buyers who do due diligence. (Realtor.com Research)
What’s the difference between raw land and build-ready land?
Raw land typically lacks improvements and tends to trade cheaper per acre, while build-ready parcels command higher prices because utilities/entitlements are closer. (Realtor.com Research)
What is a “good” price per acre?
There isn’t one number. Even within the same state, per-acre pricing can swing massively by county, zoning, and utility access—so comps matter more than averages. (USDA ERS)
Why are some Midwest farmland comps still so high?
Low turnover plus proven productivity means the best tracts don’t hit the market often, and competitive bidding can keep prices elevated. (Illinois Extension)
How do I underwrite a land deal quickly?
Start with comps, estimate your holding costs, and map two exits (fast sale vs. patient sale). Tools like DealCheck can speed up the math and comp tracking.
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Some links in this newsletter are from affiliate partners or sponsors, meaning we may earn a commission if you make a purchase. The Land Arbitrage Index is not a financial advisory service. All content is for informational and educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. Land investing carries risk — you are not guaranteed to make money and may lose money. We provide data and analysis to help you make more informed decisions, but the final call is always yours.
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