Land Arbitrage Index

THE SIGNAL

Everyone asks: “Where’s the cheap land?”

This week’s answer is… it depends what you mean by “land.”

If you mean rural dirt you can buy in bulk, parts of Texas are still trading under $1k/acre.

If you mean buildable-ish residential land near job growth and airports and “my cousin is moving there” energy… welcome to Orange County, Florida.

Orange County’s median vacant-land price is now $230,769 per acre. That’s not a typo.

And the gap between “cheap” and “expensive” inside the same state is getting wider, not narrower.

BY THE NUMBERS

• Orange County (Orlando area) median: $230,769/acre (low $86,614, high $1,084,906). Source: The Apopka Voice
• Florida statewide median (vacant residential land): $74,000/acre
• Orange County market depth: 801 recorded vacant-land transactions (Jan 2024–Dec 2025)
• Florida average range (vacant land): $8,000–$15,000/acre. Source: BuyLandFL
• Florida cheap seats: Liberty County $2,000–$5,000/acre; Lafayette County $2,500–$6,000/acre; Calhoun County $2,500–$6,000/acre
• Texas rural land (Q4 2025): statewide median $5,214/acre (+6.56% YoY); Far West Texas $751/acre (+20.35% YoY). Source: FCA
• Mortgage rates: 30-year fixed 6.38% on 3/26/2026 (up from 6.22%). Source: Mortgage News Daily

COUNTY SPOTLIGHT: ORANGE COUNTY, FL (ORLANDO)

Let’s talk about what that $230,769/acre number actually means.

It does not mean every random lot in the county is worth a quarter-million per acre.

It means the middle of the market is priced like… a starter home.

And Orange County’s range is wild: $86,614/acre on the low end, up to $1,084,906/acre on the high end.

So what’s driving it?

1. Location premium. Orlando isn’t “Florida cheap” anymore. It’s a real jobs + tourism + growth engine.
2. Scarcity premium. The kind of vacant parcel that can actually be used (access, utilities, zoning, not wetlands) is a smaller slice than most people think.
3. Builder math. If builders can sell finished homes at today’s prices, they can justify paying up for dirt. Even if interest rates are annoying.

Here’s the part land investors miss:

When you see a county-level median that high, it’s usually telling you one thing:

The market is rewarding “ready-to-go” lots, not “maybe someday” acreage.

If you’re playing in Orange County, your edge probably isn’t “I found a cheap acre.”

Your edge is:

• Knowing what zoning actually allows
• Understanding wetlands/flood zones (Florida will humble you fast)
• Getting a parcel that has real road access
• Not overpaying for a lot that looks buildable but isn’t

This is where I’ll recommend a tool I actually like. Before you wire money or even make an offer, run the deal numbers in DealCheck. It’s a quick gut-check on holding costs, comps, and whether the price you’re excited about makes any sense.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

• The widening spread inside “hot” states. Florida can be $2k–$6k/acre in some Panhandle counties and six figures per acre near metros. That spread creates opportunity, but it also creates traps.
• Rates staying sticky. With the 30-year fixed at 6.38%, the “cheap debt saves every deal” era is still not back. That pushes buyers toward smaller lots, better locations, and shorter timelines.
• Rural land still quietly climbing. USDA’s 2025 averages show farm real estate $4,350/acre (+4.3%) and pastureland $1,920/acre (+4.9%). Even the boring dirt is not exactly getting cheaper.

Interested in selling your Florida Land?  Check out the Florida Land Buyers at https://www.cashforlandfl.com/ 

ONE MORE THING

If you’re new here, here’s a simple filter that saves you from 80% of the bad deals:

If the listing doesn’t answer these three questions clearly, treat it like a red flag until proven otherwise:

• Can I legally build what I want?
• Can I physically access it year-round?
• What will it cost to make it “usable” (power, septic, well, clearing, driveway)?

The county name matters. But the boring details matter more.

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Some links in this newsletter are from affiliate partners or sponsors, meaning we may earn a commission if you make a purchase. The Land Arbitrage Index is not a financial advisory service. All content is for informational and educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. Land investing carries risk — you are not guaranteed to make money and may lose money. We provide data and analysis to help you make more informed decisions, but the final call is always yours.